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Полное описание отчёта

Дистрибуция электричества в Украине регулируется государством. Доля 28 компаний (облэнерго и две специализированные компании), составляет 97% дистрибуции и 80% поставок электричества в Украине. Недостаточный уровень капитальных инвестиций привел к высокому уровню изношенности оборудования – регулятор, НКРЕ, одобрил удвоение инвестиций для модернизации основных средств в 2008 году.
Ключевым фактор, влияющим на прибыльность облэнерго в будущем, является тарифная реформа, запланированная на 2009: переход от тарифной политики «затраты+» к политике, ориентированной на RAB.
В данном отчете мы расширили наш набор методов оценки стоимости компаний, с учетом введения новых тарифов. Мы использовали показатели EV/Transformer Capacity, EV/RAB, P/B, EV/EBITDA для оценки 21 наибольших компаний по дистрибуции электричества. 

Англоязычная версия отчета

Ukrainian Electricity Distribution is state regulated. The 28 licensed distribution & supply companies account for xx% of electricity distribution and xx% of electricity supply in Ukraine. Underinvestment has led to a high level of worn out equipment in the sector - the regulator, NERC, has approved a double in investments to upgrade fixed assets in 2008.

The key bottom line driver for the future is tariff reform scheduled for 2009: transition from cost+ tariff policy to a RAB (regulatory asset base) policy.

In this report, we widened our set of valuation tools to more accurately estimate the companies' values under the new tariff policy. We use EV/Transformer Capacity, EV/RAB, P/B, EV/EBITDA multiples to value the 21 biggest electricity distribution companies.

Подробное оглавление/содержание отчёта

1. Investment summary

2. Stock market and corporate governance
Privatization targets trade more actively
DTEK is likely to drive the market
Political loggerheads
Corporate conflicts wind down
Dividend policies: No changes

3. Payment collection, grid losses problems no more
We stop discriminating against poor-performing Oblenergos
Grid losses
Payment collection
Cash flow distribution

4. Tariff policy: Regulated profits are growing
CapEx growth/profit increase link
EBITDA forecasts for 2008
Tariff reform: lots of uncertainties

5. 1Q08 Financial analysis
2.5x bottom line surge in 1Q08
1Q08 margins touch historical maximum
Profitability: non-industrial Oblenergos have an edge
Debt issue
Adjustments of debt

6. Valuation
Valuation methods
EV/Sales and EV/Electricity
EV/EBITDA
EV/RAB and P/B
EV/Transformer capacity
Target price estimation
Top picks selection

7. Appendix: Company profiles

7.1 Cherkasyoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.2 Chernihivoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.3 Chernivtsioblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.4 Dniprooblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.5 Donetskoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.6 Energougol
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.7 Kharkivoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.8 Khersonoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.9 Khmelnitskoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.10 Kirovohradoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.11 Krymenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.12 Lvivoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.13 Mykolaivoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.14 Odessaoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.15 Poltavaoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.16 Prykarpatoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.17 Sevastopolenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.18 Sumyoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.19 Ternopiloblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.20 Vinnitsyaoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.21 Volynoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.22 Zakarpatoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.23 Zaporizhyaoblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

7.24 Zhytomyroblenergo
BUSINESS OVERVIEW
INVESTMENT CASE
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE - chart
MONTHLY TRADING VOLUMES - chart
MARKET INFORMATION - table
STOCK OWNERSHIP - table
MARKET MULTIPLES - table
KEY RATIOS - table
Electricity data, TWh - chart
Area of operation - chart

8. Analyst certification
9. Target Price History
10. Investment ratings

Перечень приложений

CHARTS

Performance, YTD
Sector's* commercial losses, % of power input
Share of Oblenergos* with commercial losses
Commercial electricity losses*, 1Q08, % of power input
Settlements with Energorynok
Share of disciplined* payers in group
Oblenergos with below 100% settlements
Share of Oblenergos that receive 100% cash flow from customers
Sector's aggregate investment program, USD mln
Growth in investments approved by regulator in 2008, yoy
"Rule of thumb" link between EBITDA and investment program
Investment program growth vs. EBITDA growth, USD mln
Retail electricity tariffs by consumer groups, June 2008, USD/MWh
Growth in aggregate bottom line, USD mln
Aggregate EBITDA, USD mln
Aggregate EBITDA margins
Case study: Cherkasyoblenergo quarterly EBITDA margins, 2007
EBITDA margins by groups: 1Q05 vs. 1Q08
ODEN target: upside
DNON: upside
ZAON: upside
ENUG: downside
KION: upside
SMEN: downside
ZHEN: upside
CHEN: upside
CHEON: upside
CHON: upside
HAON: upside
HMON: upside
HOEN: upside
KREN: upside
LVON: upside
POON: upside
PREN: upside
TOEN: upside
VIEN: upside
VOEN: upside
ZOEN: upside
Top picks selection summary

TABLES

Dividends of Ukrainian Electricity Distribution Companies
Losses subject to compensation in 2008, % of low-voltage power input
EBITDA forecast summary
Sector profits increase, 1Q08, chg yoy
Account payable statistics, 1Q08, USD mln
Receivables adjustment, USD mln
Net debt adjustment, USD mln
Peer multiples: Distribution and supply companies
Peer multiples: Grid companies
Implied share prices, USD
Peer EV/EBITDA multiples
Implied share prices, USD
Equipment price indices
Book value and RAB estimates, USD mln
Peer multiples
Implied share prices, USD
Correlation matrix for Oblenergo parameters
Peer multiples: EV/Transformer capacity, USD/kVA
Implied share prices by peer median EV/Capacity, USD
Valuation summary table

Запрос на покупку

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Название исследования	Дата	Цена
Рынок нефтепродуктов (УФО)	20 Декабря 2012	133500 руб.
Российский рынок промышленного газового оборудования: итоги 2011-2012 гг., прогноз до 2020 гг.	3 Апреля 2012	67500 руб.
«ОТКРЫТИЕ КОМПАНИИ ПО ПРОДАЖЕ МАТЕРИАЛЬНО-ТЕХНИЧЕСКОГО ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЯ (МТО) ДЛЯ НЕФТЕГАЗОВОЙ ОТРАСЛИ»	30 Июля 2015	50000 руб.

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